Clinical behavior of recurrent hormone receptor-positive breast cancer by adjuvant endocrine therapy within the Breast International Group 1-98 clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Endocrine therapy resistance is a major cause of distant recurrence (DR) in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. This study evaluated differences in survival after DR in patients treated with different adjuvant endocrine therapy regimens in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial. METHODS: BIG 1-98 compared 5 years of adjuvant treatment among 4 arms: tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L), tamoxifen followed by letrozole (TL), and letrozole followed by tamoxifen (LT). After a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 911 of 8010 patients (T, 302; L, 285; TL, 170; and LT, 154) had DR as the site of first recurrence. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to determine features associated with post-DR survival. RESULTS: The median follow-up time after DR was 59 months (interquartile range, 29-88 months). Among all patients with DR, 38.1% were 65 years old or older at enrollment, 61.9% had tumors larger than 2 cm, and 69.7% were node positive. Neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 35.6% of the patients. There was no difference in post-DR survival by treatment arm (median survival, 20.8 months for T, 17.9 months for L, 17.3 months for TL, and 20.8 months for LT; P = .21). In multivariate analysis, older patients (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.59) and patients with tumors larger than 2 cm (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.41), 4 or more positive nodes (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05-1.64), progesterone receptor (PR)-negative tumors (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52), or shorter disease-free survival (DFS) had significantly worse post-DR survival. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with adjuvant T, L, or their sequences was not associated with differences in survival after DR. Significant differences in survival were observed by age, primary tumor size, nodal and PR status, and DFS, and this suggests that traditional baseline high-risk features remain prognostic in the metastatic setting.

Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events under tamoxifen and letrozole alone and in sequence: a report from the BIG 1-98 trial.

BACKGROUND: Compared to tamoxifen, adjuvant treatment with aromatase inhibitors improves disease outcomes of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer. In the international, randomized, double-blind BIG 1-98 trial, 8010 women were randomized to receive tamoxifen, letrozole, or sequential use of the agents for 5 years. With a focus on switching between agents, we investigated cardiovascular events over the entire 5-year treatment period. METHODS: Of the 6182 patients enrolled, 6144 started trial treatment and were included in this analysis. Adverse events occurring during study treatment until 30 days after cessation were considered. Eight cardiovascular event types were defined. Cumulative incidence of events were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, without consideration for competing events. Multivariable Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for pairwise comparisons of treatment arms. RESULTS: While on study treatment, 6.5% of patients (n = 397) had any cardiac events reported; for 2.4%, the event was grades 3-5, of which 11 (0.2%) were grade 5. Letrozole monotherapy was associated with higher risk of grade 1-5 ischemic heart disease (HR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.06-3.08) compared with tamoxifen monotherapy. Patients assigned sequential tamoxifen →letrozole (HR = 1.59; 95% CI, 0.92-2.74) or sequential letrozole → tamoxifen (HR = 1.20; 95% CI, 0.68-2.14) showed a lesser degree of risk elevation. Patients assigned to tamoxifen-containing regimens had significantly higher risk of grade 1-5 thromboembolic events (tamoxifen monotherapy HR = 2.10; 95% CI, 1.42-3.12; tamoxifen → letrozole HR = 1.96; 95% CI, 1.32-2.92; letrozole → tamoxifen HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.03-2.35) as compared with patients assigned letrozole alone. CONCLUSION: When initiating or switching between adjuvant endocrine treatments in postmenopausal patients, age and medical history, with special attention to prior cardiovascular events, should be balanced with expected benefit of the treatment.

Treatment-induced symptoms, depression and age as predictors of sexual problems in premenopausal women with early breast cancer receiving adjuvant endocrine therapy.

PURPOSE: Sexual dysfunction is an important concern of premenopausal women with early breast cancer. We investigated predictors of sexual problems in two randomized controlled trials. METHODS: A subset of patients enrolled in TEXT and SOFT completed global and symptom-specific quality-of-life indicators, CES-Depression and MOS-Sexual Problems measures at baseline, six, 12 and 24 months. Mixed models tested the association of changes in treatment-induced symptoms (baseline to 6 months), depression at 6 months, and age at randomization with changes in sexual problems over 2 years. RESULTS: Sexual problems increased by 6 months and persisted at this level. Overall, patients with more severe worsening of vaginal dryness, sleep disturbances and bone or joint pain at 6 months reported a greater increase in sexual problems at all time-points. Depression scores were significantly associated with sexual problems in the short-term. All other symptoms had a smaller impact on sexual problems. Age was not associated with sexual problems at any time-point. CONCLUSION: Among several key symptoms, vaginal dryness, sleep disturbance, and bone and joint pain significantly predicted sexual problems during the first 2 years. Early identification of these symptoms may contribute to timely and tailored interventions.

Bias in survival estimates created by a requirement for consent to enter a clinical breast cancer registry.

BACKGROUND: A requirement for consent for inclusion may bias the results from a clinical registry. This study gives a direct measure of this bias, based on a population-based clinical breast cancer registry where the requirement for consent was removed after further ethical review and data could be re-analysed. METHODS: In Auckland, New Zealand, the population-based clinical breast cancer registry required written patient consent for inclusion from 2000-2012. A subsequent ethical review removed this requirement and allowed an analysis of consented and non-consented patients. Kaplan-Meier survival to 10 years (mean follow-up 5.1 years, maximum 13.9 years), demographic and clinical characteristics were compared. Of 9244 women with invasive cancer, 926 (10.4%) were not consented, and of 1642 women with ductal carcinoma in situ, 245 (14.9%) were not consented. RESULTS: Survival was much higher for consenting patients; invasive cancer, 5 year survival 83.2% (95% confidence limits 82.2-84.1%) for consenting patients, 57.1% (53.0-60.9%) for non-consenting, and 80.8% in all patients. Analyses based only on consenting patients overestimate survival in all patients by around 2% at 2, 5, and 10 years. Non-consented patients were older, more often of Pacific ethnicity, had fewer screen-detected cancers, and more often had metastatic disease; they less frequently had primary surgery or systemic treatments. CONCLUSION: Data from a registry requiring active consent gives an upward bias in survival results, as non-consenting patients have more extensive disease, less treatment, and lower survival. To give unbiased results active consent should be not required in a clinical cancer registry.

Adjuvant Letrozole and Tamoxifen Alone or Sequentially for Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer: Long-Term Follow-Up of the BIG 1-98 Trial.

PURPOSE: Luminal breast cancer has a long natural history, with recurrences continuing beyond 10 years after diagnosis. We analyzed long-term follow-up (LTFU) of efficacy outcomes and adverse events in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study reported after a median follow-up of 12.6 years. PATIENTS AND METHODS: BIG 1-98 is a four-arm, phase III, double-blind, randomized trial comparing adjuvant letrozole versus tamoxifen (either treatment received for 5 years) and their sequences (2 years of one treatment plus 3 years of the other) for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer. When pharmaceutical company sponsorship ended at 8.4 years of median follow-up, academic partners initiated an observational, LTFU extension collecting annual data on survival, disease status, and adverse events. Information from Denmark was from the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group Registry. Intention-to-treat analyses are reported. RESULTS: Of 8,010 enrolled patients, 4,433 were alive and not withdrawn at an LTFU participating center, and 3,833 (86%) had at least one LTFU report. For the monotherapy comparison of letrozole versus tamoxifen, we found a 9% relative reduction in the hazard of a disease-free survival event with letrozole (hazard ratio [HR], 0.91; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.01). HRs for other efficacy end points were similar to those for disease-free survival. Efficacy of letrozole versus tamoxifen for contralateral breast cancer varied significantly over time (0- to 5-, 5- to 10-, and > 10-year HRs, 0.62, 0.47, and 1.35, respectively; treatment-by-time interaction P = .005), perhaps reflecting a longer carryover effect of tamoxifen. Reporting of specific long-term adverse events seemed more effective with national registry than with case-record reporting of clinical follow-up. CONCLUSION: Efficacy end points continued to show trends favoring letrozole. Letrozole reduced contralateral breast cancer frequency in the first 10 years, but this reversed beyond 10 years. This study illustrates the value of extended follow-up in trials of luminal breast cancer.

Effect of Adjuvant Trastuzumab for a Duration of 9 Weeks vs 1 Year With Concomitant Chemotherapy for Early Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive Breast Cancer: The SOLD Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Trastuzumab plus chemotherapy is the standard adjuvant treatment for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer. While the standard duration of trastuzumab treatment is 12 months, the benefits and harms of trastuzumab continued beyond the chemotherapy are unclear. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adjuvant trastuzumab continued beyond chemotherapy in women treated with up-front chemotherapy containing a taxane and trastuzumab. Design, Setting, and Participants: Open-label, randomized (1:1) clinical trial including women with HER2-positive breast cancer. Chemotherapy was identical in the 2 groups, consisting of 3 cycles of 3-weekly docetaxel (either 80 or 100 mg/m2) plus trastuzumab for 9 weeks, followed by 3 cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide. Thereafter, no trastuzumab was administered in the 9-week group, whereas controls received trastuzumab to complete 1 year of administration. Disease-free survival (DFS) was compared between the groups using a Cox model and the noninferiority approach. The estimated sample size was 2168 patients (1-sided testing, with a relative noninferiority margin of 1.3). From January 3, 2008, to December 16, 2014, 2176 patients were accrued from 7 countries. Intervention: Docetaxel plus trastuzumab for 9 weeks, followed by 3 cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide in both groups. Controls continued trastuzumab to 1 year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary objective was DFS; secondary objectives included distant disease-free survival, overall survival, cardiac DFS, and safety. Results: In the 2174 women analyzed, median age was 56 (interquartile range [IQR], 48-64) years. The median follow-up was 5.2 (IQR, 3.8-6.7) years. Noninferiority of the 9-week treatment could not be demonstrated for DFS (hazard ratio, 1.39; 2-sided 90% CI, 1.12-1.72). Distant disease-free survival and overall survival did not differ substantially between the groups. Thirty-six (3%) and 21 (2%) patients in the 1-year and the 9-week groups, respectively, had cardiac failure; the left ventricle ejection fraction was better maintained in the 9-week group. An interaction was detected between the docetaxel dose and DFS; patients in the 9-week group treated with 80 mg/m2 had inferior and those treated with 100 mg/m2 had similar DFS as patients in the 1-year group. Conclusions and Relevance: Nine weeks of trastuzumab was not noninferior to 1 year of trastuzumab when given with similar chemotherapy. Cardiac safety was better in the 9-week group. The docetaxel dosing with trastuzumab requires further study. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00593697.

Neratinib after trastuzumab-based adjuvant therapy in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer (ExteNET): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Neratinib, an irreversible tyrosine-kinase inhibitor of HER1, HER2, and HER4, has clinical activity in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of 12 months of neratinib after trastuzumab-based adjuvant therapy in patients with early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer. METHODS: We did this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial at 495 centres in Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and North and South America. Eligible women (aged ≥18 years, or ≥20 years in Japan) had stage 1-3 HER2-positive breast cancer and had completed neoadjuvant and adjuvant trastuzumab therapy up to 2 years before randomisation. Inclusion criteria were amended on Feb 25, 2010, to include patients with stage 2-3 HER2-positive breast cancer who had completed trastuzumab therapy up to 1 year previously. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral neratinib 240 mg per day or matching placebo. The randomisation sequence was generated with permuted blocks stratified by hormone receptor status (hormone receptor-positive [oestrogen or progesterone receptor-positive or both] vs hormone receptor-negative [oestrogen and progesterone receptor-negative]), nodal status (0, 1-3, or ≥4), and trastuzumab adjuvant regimen (sequentially vs concurrently with chemotherapy), then implemented centrally via an interactive voice and web-response system. Patients, investigators, and trial sponsors were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was invasive disease-free survival, as defined in the original protocol, at 2 years after randomisation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00878709. FINDINGS: Between July 9, 2009, and Oct 24, 2011, we randomly assigned 2840 women to receive neratinib (n=1420) or placebo (n=1420). Median follow-up time was 24 months (IQR 20-25) in the neratinib group and 24 months (22-25) in the placebo group. At 2 year follow-up, 70 invasive disease-free survival events had occurred in patients in the neratinib group versus 109 events in those in the placebo group (stratified hazard ratio 0·67, 95% CI 0·50-0·91; p=0·0091). The 2-year invasive disease-free survival rate was 93·9% (95% CI 92·4-95·2) in the neratinib group and 91·6% (90·0-93·0) in the placebo group. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events in patients in the neratinib group were diarrhoea (grade 3, n=561 [40%] and grade 4, n=1 [<1%] vs grade 3, n=23 [2%] in the placebo group), vomiting (grade 3, n=47 [3%] vs n=5 [<1%]), and nausea (grade 3, n=26 [2%] vs n=2 [<1%]). QT prolongation occurred in 49 (3%) patients given neratinib and 93 (7%) patients given placebo, and decreases in left ventricular ejection fraction (≥grade 2) in 19 (1%) and 15 (1%) patients, respectively. We recorded serious adverse events in 103 (7%) patients in the neratinib group and 85 (6%) patients in the placebo group. Seven (<1%) deaths (four patients in the neratinib group and three patients in the placebo group) unrelated to disease progression occurred after study drug discontinuation. The causes of death in the neratinib group were unknown (n=2), a second primary brain tumour (n=1), and acute myeloid leukaemia (n=1), and in the placebo group were a brain haemorrhage (n=1), myocardial infarction (n=1), and gastric cancer (n=1). None of the deaths were attributed to study treatment in either group. INTERPRETATION: Neratinib for 12 months significantly improved 2-year invasive disease-free survival when given after chemotherapy and trastuzumab-based adjuvant therapy to women with HER2-positive breast cancer. Longer follow-up is needed to ensure that the improvement in breast cancer outcome is maintained. FUNDING: Wyeth, Pfizer, Puma Biotechnology.

Medical resource utilization for administration of trastuzumab in a New Zealand oncology outpatient setting: a time and motion study.

BACKGROUND: In New Zealand, trastuzumab is standard therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-positive early and metastatic breast cancer. Given the requirement for ongoing adjuvant or maintenance treatment and intravenous (IV) delivery, such a regimen consumes considerable health care resources. The development of a subcutaneous (SC) trastuzumab formulation with a short administration time offers the potential to reduce hospital expenditure. The aim of this study was to determine medical resource utilization associated with administration of trastuzumab SC injection via handheld syringe vs trastuzumab IV infusion in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer in New Zealand. METHODS: This noninterventional, descriptive study was conducted at the outpatient oncology centers at Auckland City and Tauranga Hospitals. Trained observers recorded times associated with health care professional (HCP) tasks and consumables use associated with preparation and administration of trastuzumab IV or SC in women with early or metastatic breast cancer. The cost for each formulation was calculated as the mean cost of HCP time (based on Pharmaceutical Management Agency hourly rates) plus the mean cost of consumables used. RESULTS: Use of trastuzumab SC vs IV reduced mean chair time by 36.95 minutes and total nurse time by 6.12 minutes; there was a 20.45-minute reduction in pharmacist time when the SC formulation was used. After adding consumable costs, the overall estimated saving with trastuzumab SC vs IV was $76.94 (New Zealand dollars) per patient per cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with trastuzumab IV infusion, administration of trastuzumab via SC injection reduced time spent in the clinic and decreased HCP resources and consumables needed to administer treatment. These reductions could contribute to a decrease in health care costs and an improvement in the efficiency of HER2-positive breast cancer treatment delivery.

CYP19A1 polymorphisms and clinical outcomes in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the BIG 1-98 trial.

To determine whether CYP19A1 polymorphisms are associated with abnormal activity of aromatase and with musculoskeletal and bone side effects of aromatase inhibitors. DNA was isolated from tumor specimens of 4861 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer enrolled in the BIG 1-98 trial to receive tamoxifen and/or letrozole for 5 years. Tumors were genotyped for six CYP19A1 polymorphisms using PCR-based methods. Associations with breast cancer-free interval (BCFI), distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), musculoskeletal and bone adverse events (AEs) were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. All statistical tests were two-sided. No association between the CYP19A1 genotypes and BCFI or DRFI was observed overall. A reduced risk of a breast cancer event for tamoxifen-treated patients with rs700518 variants was observed (BCFI CC/TC vs. TT: HR 0.53, 95 % CI 0.34-0.82, interaction P = 0.08), but not observed for letrozole-treated patients. There was an increased risk of musculoskeletal AEs for patients with rs700518 variants CC/TC versus TT (HR 1.22, 95 % CI 1.03-1.45, P = 0.02), regardless of treatment. Tamoxifen-treated patients with rs4646 variants had a reduced risk of bone AEs (AA/CA vs. CC: HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.59-0.98), whereas an increase of minor allele (C) of rs10046 was associated with an increased risk of bone AEs (HR 1.28, 95 % CI 1.07-1.52). rs936308 variants were associated with a reduced risk of bone AEs in letrozole-treated patients (GG/GC vs. CC: HR 0.73, 95 % CI 0.54-0.99), different from in tamoxifen-treated patients (GG/GC vs. CC: HR 1.32, 95 % CI 0.92-1.90, interaction P = 0.01). CYP19A1 rs700518 variants showed associations with BCFI, DRFI, in tamoxifen treated patients and musculoskeletal AEs regardless of treatment. SNPs rs4646, rs10046, and rs936308 were associated with bone AEs.

Capecitabine versus classical cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil as first-line chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer.

PURPOSE: We compared oral capecitabine, administered intermittently or continuously, versus classical cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) as first-line chemotherapy for women with advanced breast cancer unsuited to more intensive regimens. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred twenty-three eligible women were randomly assigned to capecitabine administered intermittently (1,000 mg/m(2) twice daily for 14 of every 21 days; n = 107) or continuously (650 mg/m(2) twice daily for 21 of every 21 days; n = 107), or to classical CMF (oral cyclophosphamide 100 mg/m(2) days 1 to 14 with intravenous methotrexate 40 mg/m(2) and fluorouracil 600 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 8 every 28 days; n = 109). The primary end point was quality-adjusted progression-free survival (PFS); secondary end points included PFS, overall survival (OS), objective tumor response, and adverse events. Intermittent and continuous capecitabine were to be compared first and, if similar (P > .05), combined for definitive comparisons versus CMF. RESULTS: Quality-adjusted PFS (P = .2), objective tumor response rate (20%; P = .8), and PFS (median, 6 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.10; P = .2) were similar in women assigned capecitabine versus CMF. OS was longer in women assigned capecitabine rather than CMF (median, 22 v 18 months; HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94; P = .02). Febrile neutropenia, infection, stomatitis, and serious adverse events were more common with CMF; hand-foot syndrome was more common with capecitabine. CONCLUSION: Capecitabine improved OS by being similarly active, less toxic, and more tolerable than CMF. Capecitabine is a good first-line chemotherapy option for women with advanced breast cancer who are unsuited to more intensive regimens.

Comparison of two standard chemotherapy regimens for good-prognosis germ cell tumors: updated analysis of a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The Australian and New Zealand Germ Cell Trials Group conducted a multicenter randomized phase III trial in men with good-prognosis germ cell tumors of two standard chemotherapy regimens that contained bleomycin, etoposide, and cisplatin but differed in the scheduling and total dose of cisplatin, the total dose of bleomycin, and the scheduling and dose intensity of etoposide. The trial was stopped early at a median follow-up of 33 months after a planned interim analysis found a survival benefit for the more dose-intense regimen. The aim of this analysis was to determine if this survival benefit was maintained with long-term follow-up. METHODS: Between February 1994 and April 2000, 166 men with good-prognosis metastatic germ cell tumors defined by modified Memorial Sloan-Kettering criteria were randomly assigned to receive 3B(90)E(500)P (three cycles, repeated every 21 days, of 30 kU bleomycin on days 1, 8, and 15; 100 mg/m(2) etoposide on days 1-5; and 20 mg/m(2) cisplatin on days 1-5; n = 83) or 4B(30)E(360)P (four cycles, repeated every 21 days, of 30 kU bleomycin on day 1, 120 mg/m(2) etoposide on days 1-3, and 100 mg/m(2) cisplatin on day 1; n = 83). Endpoints included overall survival, progression-free survival, and quality of life and side effects, which were assessed using the Spitzer Quality of Life Index and the GLQ-8, respectively, before random assignment and during and after treatment. All analyses were by intention to treat. All P values are two-sided. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 8.5 years. All but five survivors (3%) were followed up for at least 5 years. Overall survival remained better in those assigned to 3B(90)E(500)P than in those assigned to 4B(30)E(360)P (8-year survival: 92% vs 83%; hazard ratio of death = 0.38, 95% confidence interval = 0.15 to 0.97, P = .037). Progression-free survival favored 3B(90)E(500)P but was not statistically significantly different between the treatment groups (8-year progression-free survival, 3B(90)E(500)P vs 4B(30)E(360)P: 86% vs 79%; hazard ratio of progression = 0.6, 95% confidence interval = 0.3 to 1.1, P = .15). At the end of treatment, average scores for most side effect scales favored 3B(90)E(500)P. After the completion of treatment, average GLQ-8 scores for numbness (P = .003) and hair loss (P = .04) and the Spitzer Quality of Life Index (P = .05) favored 3B(90)E(500)P. CONCLUSION: The survival benefit of 3B(90)E(500)P over 4B(30)E(360)P was maintained with long-term follow-up.

A durable complete remission between two isolated presentations of metastatic breast cancer, the second with intracardiac disease.

We report a case of a postmenopausal patient with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer who, while receiving tamoxifen, experienced relapse with isolated ovarian metastases 4.5 years after her primary treatment. After resection of her pelvic disease, she commenced anastrozole, and while receiving this, remained disease free for an additional 7.5 years before experiencing relapse again with isolated metastatic disease in an unusual location: intracardiac disease causing superior vena cava obstruction.

Serum insulin-like growth factor-I and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 following chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and IGF binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) appear to influence the growth of breast cancer cells in vitro, and epidemiological studies suggest higher serum IGF-I levels increase the risk of breast cancer. IGF-I and IGFBP-3 have therefore been measured in women with advanced breast cancer to determine if changes in serum levels predict the response to treatment by chemotherapy. METHODS: Serum IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels were measured in 14 patients before and after 1 week of chemotherapy. Changes in serum levels were compared with duration of survival. RESULTS: Mean basal serum levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were not significantly different between patients with advanced breast cancer and controls or women with early breast cancer. Serum IGFBP-3 fell significantly 1 week after initiation of chemotherapy. Patient survival was not significantly related to baseline IGF-I or IGFBP-3 levels, but when the fall in serum levels 1 week after starting treatment was expressed either as absolute change or as a percentage of baseline, those individuals with a decrease in IGFBP-3 greater than the median had significantly poorer survival (median survival 5.5 months vs 18 months). These results were independent of other prognostic variables such as previous disease-free survival, and were also unaffected by the change in serum albumin with treatment. The fall in IGF-I and IGFBP-3 with chemotherapy mainly occurred in those with hepatic metastases, but prediction of survival was explained solely by the extent of the fall in IGFBP-3. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study has shown that serum IGFBP-3 falls significantly following initiation of chemotherapy and the extent of reduction significantly predicts the response to treatment.